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Thursday, December 8, 2011

State of the AL West: Say Your Prayers, Mariners Fans

Jimmy Michaels & Alex Gallant




When all of the t’s are crossed and the i’s dotted, Albert Pujols is going to be kicking it in the 90210 with a brand new, 10 year, $254 million contract with the Los Angeles Angels.

In deals that came out of nowhere on day four of the MLB Winter Meetings in Dallas, the Angels quickly stole the show, signing Pujols to the above deal and Texas ace C.J. Wilson to a 5 year, $77.5 million deal.

Signing two all-stars to their roster, the Angels are quickly becoming a favorite in the division. They now have an enormous amount of flexibility with the young players left on their roster, including Kendrys Morales and Mark Trumbo. One can assume that the Angels will likely employ Morales at DH and find a trade for Abreu.

Here’s what the Angels roster may look like coming this spring:


With a potent lineup like they will have, and plenty of quality backups, the Angels aren’t going to have any drawbacks late in the season when players start needing more rest. The Angels are going to have a very strong roster throughout the season, and a lot of that is going to come from their bench.

With the Angels back in the pennant race, the Rangers are going to have to shake up their roster as well. Right now, they have a lot to think about, from finding a new ace to re-signing perennial all-star Josh Hamilton. Hamilton, in the last year of a short two-year deal, wants to sign a new, long-term contract before the season starts. Now that they have the Angels to worry about, they are going to have to buy some more pitching to help in a division where pitching and defense reigns supreme. Each team in the AL West has a strong set of starters, and generally each has good relief.

If the Mariners are going to compete in the AL West this season, they have got quite a bit of catching up to do. With the worst offense in the majors, they need to be looking for a bat, and not just any bat. They need to sign someone that’s going to electrify the fan base, to get them excited. And I’m not talking Chone Figgins exciting. How about bona fide success, no doubts? Pujols exciting. Someone like Prince Fielder.

With the Albert Pujols signing today by the Angels, the Mariners find themselves in a tough spot. For the next couple years, it appears they will not have the talent to compete with the Angels and Rangers. Does this mean Prince Fielder is a must have now for Seattle? Let’s take a look.

First off, the Angels have a solid, yet unspectacular lineup, even with Pujols. Aside from Peter Bourjos, the outfield is aging, with Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells and Bobby Abreu all past their prime. With Pujols, he will add to the list in the coming years. Although this deal is for ten years, he will not be productive for the whole decade. Arte Moreno and company would be lucky to get five solid years from him before his decline begins.

Their pitching staff is set up better for the future. Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, C.J. Wilson and Ervin Santana should all be productive for several more years. But when their current hitters start to decline, who will step in? The Angels have locked themselves into a high payroll for the next decade, with no real opportunity to decrease it significantly.

The Texas Rangers are in a similar situation to the Angels. Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler will all be in for a big payday soon enough, and Texas cannot keep all of them. Adrian Beltre will hit the downslope soon as well, and this will force the Rangers to adjust. Now that C.J. Wilson has left for the Angels, the starting rotation is in a state of disarray at the moment. Texas had five average starters, and the only one that has frontline type pitches is Derek Holland, and he is far from that status. They are fine for the next couple years, but after that, the Mariners seem to be in an advantageous position, as Texas and the Angels will be either aging or losing players.

This brings us to Seattle. Presently, Jack Zduriencik and the front office have a tough decision to make. Do they go aggressively after Prince Fielder, given the moves made in the rest of the division? The answer should be yes, without hesitation. The payroll would increase significantly this season, but after that, Fielder’s contract would not hurt too much in their spending plans. Ichiro’s $18 million is set to come off the books next season, and if Seattle can somehow get rid of the Chone Figgins contract, that would alleviate even more payroll concerns.

Zduriencik has set up the team so that the Mariners will have plenty of money to spend in the coming years. But after today, they cannot wait around. Prince Fielder needs to be signed, and then Zduriencik must complement him with further pieces via free agency or trade. Those moves could come this offseason or next, when they have greater flexibility. Nevertheless, the Mariners will dig themselves a deeper hole if they do not make a high impact move this offseason. Prince Fielder would provide that. He would raise attendance numbers, and the match-ups with Pujols would stay intact, this time in the AL West.

Fielder, even if his salary might be a bit too high, would persuade additional players to join the Mariners. Seattle is set pitching wise, all that is left is upgrading the lineup. Prince Fielder would immensely help the run production, but he would just be the first step. But it is a step the Mariners must take to stay competitive now, and to set themselves up for a streak of playoff opportunities in the years to come.

Follow us on twitter:
Jimmy Michaels: @jimmymichaels1
Alex Gallant: @Alex_Gallant

2 comments:

  1. I don't 100% agree or disagree with you. I don't think it is as urgent to sign Fielder as you do, but I agree that it would only hurt tha Mariners, as far as being able to add other pieces, in 2012....not the following years. Seattle currently has Approximately $39 Mil committed in 2013, $22 Mil in 2014 and $14 Mil in 2015. They could reasonably add Fielder this season and still add other pieces in the next few, as the teams recent drafts start paying dividends in the way of Franklin, Hultzen, F Martinez, Paxton and Walker....perhaps Pimental. My problem is the length of the contract. It is just hard to swallow an 8-10 year deal for a guy with this many risk factors. If 6 years-$150 Mil gets it done, then great. Any longer and I am concerned. I could see spending the same amount of money this year and picking up, say, Carlos Beltran (maybe 2 years, $20 Mil)and trade for another bat with low years/higher salary attached as stop-gaps until we have more talent at the MLB level and more payroll flexibility.

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  2. Thanks for the input! I think if they sign Fielder, it would be in the five or six year range. They have to find ways to get some other supporting pieces, cuz Fielder isn't enough. They have to set aside some money, and also think about their infield. They need a better left side of the infield. They need a bona fide LFer... If they get Fielder, they would inevitably trade Smoak, who could command some serious talent.

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